La Crisis de Servicio al Cliente en Estados Unidos

Hace casi 20 años, este paper fue publicado en una revista de una prestigiosa escuela de negocios. El tiempo ha pasado, sin embargo, los elementos mencionados siguen tanto o más vigentes. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BySmvIneJrxTM3VMbkUxTjdZa1U

Hispanic and the Racial Issue

Lately, as America has been driven into the worst racial divide in recent years, many groups, trying to use this issue for political gains, are creating a bridge to reach Latinos using the racial issue. They are totally wrong. While racism has been a milestone in America's civil relations, Latino's don't see race in the same way other groups may. Why? Because slavery has abolished in most of Latin America during the 17th Century. Neither a segregation continue after abolishion as it did in America even well in the 20th Century. Therefore, the "white shame" doesn't exist to be explotated. The socio-economic divide is the main element that separates people in Latin America. Not the race card. Also, political correctness -so intelligently managed by some groups in America- is almost inexistent in Latin America. If Americans watch any TV show in Telemundo or Univision, they will be apalled. Most Latino commentators wouldn't last one day in their jobs if working for a mainstream network. They would be called racists, homophobics or biggots. Latinos are difficult to be driven into the racial confrontation affecting America. They don't feel the same as other groups regarding White privilege. One caviat, as many drifters, some may use the racial card to their favor if they see an advantage but without a deep conviction. Latino is not a race. Hispanics are a group as diverse as the fabric of America. Many mainstream Americans have difficulties understanding this. Hispanics come in all colors, religions and even languages. While Spanish is shared by many, let's not forget Portuguese and a rich pool of native dialects like Quechua and Guarani. Hispanics are sensible to immigration issues, specially those from Mexico and Central America which account for most of the illegal immigrants in the United States. All Latinos are extremely worried about the economy, health and education and most of the group has deep rooted Christian values. Bottom line, race has not been, it is not and it shall not be an issue among Hispanics

Marketing Trends in a New Multicultural Society

From our friend Prof. Felipe Korzenny, we would like to share his latest article. Abstract:

Hispanic Affluence by State - Implications for Marketing. Hispanics seems to be doing quite well in terms of having a relatively high representation of high earning households overall. There are gaps that are due to economic conditions and opportunities but for marketers, the lesson is clear. High earning Latino households are abundant and their significant presence points to their potential for enhancing the bottom line of many marketers that realize their potential

YouTube Interview

The video released by ACLU in YouTube:

Demandan por abusos de inspectores fronterizos - UniradioInforma.com

Demandan por abusos de inspectores fronterizos - UniradioInforma.com

CBP Agents Accussed of Excesive Force

With the same force I advocated against illegal immigration a few years ago, now I am fighting the abuses from public agents in the United States. They are there to enforce the law and not to abuse it or behave as if they are above the law. The Patriotic Act has a very specific and clear objective: fight against terrorism. When they use the law as a shield to refuse accountability or seek impunity while braking the law or violating the most basic human rights and exercise despotism, they are eroding the basis of our society and destroying the same values terrorists want to obliterate.

View more videos at: http://nbcsandiego.com.

Chilean businessman Hernan Cuevas claims what happned to him at the Calexico port of entry in May of 2011 hasn't happened in the 15 years he's been traveling all over the world. Sean Riordan, a lawyer for the ACLU, explains the complaint filed with the Department of Homeland Security. Source: Latest Videos, News Video, and Video Clips | NBC San Diego

Standards are Poor...

2 de Mayo de 2011

Juan Foxley R.

Economista, Consultor Internacional y Profesor del Postgrado en Administración de Riesgos en la Universidad Alberto Hurtado.

http://www.juanfoxley.cl

El destino de fondos tan importantes como los ahorros en AFPs, las reservas internacionales del Banco Central o los excedentes que Hacienda deposita en sus fondos soberanos, dependen crucialmente de la evaluación del riesgo de instrumentos financieros que hagan las agencias clasificadoras. En la práctica, no se mueve una hoja de papeles de renta fija-(bonos emitidos por empresas o gobiernos)-sin que Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, o Fitch Ratings hayan calificado su riesgo.

Cuando el presidente de la Fed declaraba recién que la advertencia de Standard and Poor´s –(que rebajó a ´negativa’ la perspectiva de riesgo de crédito para la deuda de EEUU)- no agregaba nada que no se supiera, lo que nos estaba recordando era la discutible utilidad anticipatoria de las agencias clasificadoras de riesgo.

Pero aparte de temas de oportunidad, son varios los problemas que se presentan a la hora de poner nota a las emisiones de papeles de países y empresas. Para partir por el caso mencionado, es difícil pensar que las varas de medida sean similares para distintos países. En particular, la calificación a un país con déficit fiscal de 9.7 por ciento del PGB y deuda pública proyectada por encima del 100 por ciento del PGB para 2011 no podría ser AAA.

Menos aún, si su sistema financiero está mal capitalizado y sus legisladores se entrampan jugando al choque de trenes. Peor aún si el presidente no ha sido capaz de convencer que su programa de ajuste fiscal a 12 años plazo es lo que necesita. Si ni siquiera el Departamento Fiscal del FMI se manifestó muy entusiasta y dudó del realismo de las proyecciones de reversión del déficit norteamericano. Así, por lo menos la degradación de un par de escalones (AA) se impondría en un país como ese. El obstáculo es que ese país es el que emite la principal moneda de reserva. Pueden imprimirla a gusto y no solo están atados al dólar. Son el dólar. Pueden inflar sus deudas, devaluar su moneda e imponer los costos sobre todo el resto que la utiliza. Así lo hicieron en 1985 cuando Alemania y Japón fueron citados al Hotel Plaza para admitir la depreciación coordinada del dólar en un 50 por ciento, facilitando la recuperación norteamericana a partir de un limitado poder negociador de la restantes potencias.

En definitiva, ponerle nota al riesgo de EEUU no pasa por examinar su probabilidad de repago. EEUU no tiene riesgo crediticio en ese sentido tradicional. En cambio, puede licuar sus deudas y exportar así buena parte de los costos del apriete de cinturón sin tener que declararse en default.
¿Qué hizo entonces S&P? Reconoció sin decirlo ese estatus especial, y para que no se diga no hacen nada, anunció una tímida advertencia usando la retórica de las perspectivas negativas a dos años.

Pero las agencias clasificadoras enfrentan también otros problemas. Desde luego, no es muy fuerte el incentivo que tienen para ser neutrales. Sus ingresos provienen mayoritariamente del pago que perciben de los propios emisores de instrumentos sometidos a evaluación. Esto pone a la industria de clasificación de riesgo en una posición de conflicto de interés parecida a la que se develó en el corretaje de bolsa y los análisis bursátiles en EEUU. En ese caso, el ´acuerdo Spitzer ´ comprendió compensaciones superiores a los 1.000 millones dólares a inversionistas perjudicados por recomendaciones sesgadas. Se probó que los analistas de 10 bancos de inversión favorecían el negocio de colocación de papeles de las entidades en que trabajaban. Algo se ha hecho en la normativa después de ese caso, separando con murallas chinas los roles de analista y colocador. En el símil de las agencias clasificadoras de riesgo, dichas murallas son de muy baja altura. Quizás el mejor testimonio de aquello es la performance de los MBS y CDO, derivados que poco antes de valer cero en 2008 eran portadores de clasificaciones top. Como declaraba uno de los entrevistados en el documental Inside Job, no había forma en que el volumen de instrumentos derivados aprobados con AAA pudiera haber sido ser evaluado en toda su complejidad en tan poco tiempo. Y si una de las clasificadoras demoraba o negaba, siempre estaba la del lado dispuesta a acoger con ´opinión´ favorable al cliente emisor de dichos artefactos.

Con todo, regular a las clasificadoras es delicado. Los gobiernos europeos con problemas fiscales podrían querer hacerlo hoy pero las circunstancias sugieren que el remedio podría ser peor que la enfermedad en esos casos.

Un avance sería eliminar la obligación de clasificación por solo tres agencias -(Chila ya usa una propia)-y obligar a la máxima transparencia metodológica, como se hace en la supervisión bancaria. Esto no elimina del todo la ambigüedad de juicio (p.ej. frente a las emisiones soberanas de EEUU) pero al menos limita la discrecionalidad. Alternativamente, el riesgo de crédito debería expresarse en el mercado mismo. Facilitar esto, p. ej. por la vía de difundir profusamente los spreads de riesgo país, ayudaría a complementar los juicios de agencias que al final emiten lo que ellos mismos llaman meras ´opiniones´, sin ninguna responsabilidad ulterior.

Z-Shaped Thinking

America was affected by two consecutive depressive waves and Latin America -with only a couple of exceptions- suffered the effects of the world crisis. Whatever lessons we learned, Z-Shaped thinking became more important than ever. Those whom were able to think out of the box, being innovative and adapt quickly not only survived but in many cases, transform it in a tremendous opportunity for business and flourished.

On Business Planning

A colleague asked for my advise regarding the best methodology to build a business plan. As a rule, there is not a single methodology that offers one-size-fits-all. Also, methodology, like process, technology, people are just tools and they are great as far as they allow you to reach -and ideally, excel- your objectives in a timely manner.

What is important in a business plan:

- A clear objective and time-framed goals. The extension of the business plan will depend on them. The longer the term and broader the objective the wider, more complex and more uncertain the plan. Western culture privileges certainty -therefore, you can do well only planning in the short term, while Eastern culture privilege long-term objectives -therefore, they plan in a more flexible but uncertain way. East meets West is an approach were you use both ways. You plan in certainty -therefore with great detail and limited flexibility- for the short term and you outline in a more versatile and flexible way for the long-term planning. I like to use this approach.
- A throughout analysis of the product, its market, competition, etc. Key information, friendly displayed and synthesized (here, as some pointed: Marketing Mix, SWOT, BCG Matrix and other tools play their role)
- Then, you need to analyze the possible avenues to reach from A to B and select those that seems feasible depending on financing, K demand, other resources, blockades, etc.
- For each one of the feasible alternatives, you need to do a quick simulation to identify pros and cons (like cash flow generation, competitive reaction, timing, etc.)

A good business planning model for these steps was designed by Alex Osterwalder

- Select the 2-3 best possible options. The best option will be your main plan while the other/s will be your reserve (plan B or contingency options)
- Prepare throughout projected financial statements as well as clear description of the strategies, goals, KPI, actions, etc. for 2 years.
- Prepare big-picture -adjustable- projections on KPI for longer periods (like years 3, 4 or 5)

The detailed financial part -with which I started- is usually placed by the end in appendixes. The non-financial part is the key of the main presentation of a business plan:

- The Management Team
- The Marketing Plan
- The Operational Plan

Finally, create an Executive Summary in few pages -a Power Point or any other platform you like- where in a concise and simple way, you will show why the business plan is feasible and worth pursuing, why success is the most probably outcome.

Again, there is not magic recipes here. The way you do it -as another commenter wrote- varies greatly if you are starting from scratch or just taking in someone's previous work, if you are innovating with a new product or market or just following the tides. If you are planning a major expansion or just entering in a new small venture. The extension, detail, amount of resources and time invested in preparing the business plan are in direct proportion of the size of the business you are planning. Never forget that... (your son doesn't need to go to great extent to borrow $20 from you and setup a lemonade stand in the neighborhood but whatever I may have described here falls short if Toyota plans in acquiring GM operations worldwide)

Hope I was of help. Good luck!